2007 年 5 月 9 日 星期三 【微冷】

“Naruto”
——— Risk-taking and Decision-making

“Naruto” is a popular manga (Japanese comic book) with an anime TV series adaptation. It is a story about ninja (ancient Japanese spies or special agents) of the Leaf Village. There is a hierarchy in the classification of all ninjas. Four-ranking hierarchy is formed among the ninjas, including Genin (Low Ninja), Chunin (Middle Ninja), Jonin (High Ninja) and Kage (Shadow). Every ninja could be promoted to the next level through public examination. The exam is held once a year.

Every Genin can take the board examination with the nomination from his or her Jonin-sensei (mentor or teacher). All candidates are split up into teams of three. All three team members have to pass the examination. If one of the team members fails in any stage of the exam, the whole group would be disqualified.

It is a three-stage exam. Today, we just focus on the first stage of the exam. The first stage tests Genin’s information gathering techniques and decision-making capabilities. At this stage, Genin participants are asked to finish a written test within an hour. The written test is divided into two sections. The first part of the written test consists of nine compulsory questions. Candidates have to answer all nine questions within forty-five minutes. The second half of the exam lasts for fifteen minutes and only one compulsory question is needed to be answered. Each right answer scores one mark, whereas one mark would be deducted for each wrong answer. Anyone who scores zero or is caught cheat five times would be failed and his or her team members would be disqualified at the same time.

In the first part of the written test, all nine questions were way too difficult and almost no candidate was able to have all correct answers. The best strategy for the examinees was being a cheater and tried to find all correct answers within five times of cheating. Majority of the Genin adopted this strategy. Unfortunately, the examiners caught many cheaters red-handed during the test. All cheaters who got caught were expelled from the exam hall.

Before the second half of the test started, the chief examiner explained two special test regulations in section two. First, candidate had the right to choose whether he or she answered the last question or not. Second, if anyone who chose not to answer that question, he would be regarded as failed and his teammates would be disqualified as well. The disqualified candidates had to wait another year and sat for the next exam. In contrast, if any candidate who chose to answer the final question, the answer that he gave must be correct. If the answer was wrong, the examinee was not only disqualified but also would be prohibited from sitting for the future exam. In other words, that Genin would never have chance to be promoted to a higher-ranked position.

It was a dilemma for the examinees. Under the pressure of the examination, a good many examinees left the exam room and decided to retake the exam in the coming year. Some twenty candidates or so continued the latter part of the exam. Surprisingly, once the Genin had made the decision, the chief examiner announced that all Genin who stayed behind passed the exam, even if they got zero mark in the first part of the written test.

This exam is just like a gambling. The Genin who gave up the second half of the test became losers, while the candidates who stayed behind won in the gambling. Some candidates argued that the exam was not fair. But, in my opinion, the case was not that simple.

Superficially, there are only two groups of people, winners or losers. These two groups of examinees could be subdivided into four types. The Genin who chose not to answer the final question but got high marks in the first part of the test belongs to the first type. This type of candidates was a total loser. They took a lot of risks in cheating. Although they showed their abilities in intelligence gathering in section one, they did not dare to sit for section two. They had no confidence in the latter part of the exam. Their efforts were all in vain. They could have passed the exam if they had not left the exam room. Those examinees were not stupid, but they lack confidence in themselves.

The second type of examinees was the Genin who got zero mark (or low mark) in the first nine questions. This type of students had a fair information gathering techniques (cheating skills). Although those candidates were unable to get high mark in the first section, they did not get caught during the exam. Those examinees believed that there was an off chance of passing the test. It is believed that the last question would be a difficult one since the first nine questions were not easy. Therefore, it is quite reasonable for them to choose not to answer the final question and retake the exam next time. This kind of students makes their decisions according to rational choice. However, if they had chosen to answer the tenth question, they would have passed the exam. Those candidates seemed to make a rational decision that favored them. But, apparently, it turned to be an unfavorable result.

The third category was the candidates who were as smart as the first type. They had a talent for spy (cheating) and were not found cheat. Since they got high mark in the first section, the final question was not supposed to be a very difficult one. This kind of students may not have hundred percent sure that they can pass the exam, but they believed that it is worth taking a risk. They are very likely to get passed next time, but they are not willing to wait another year. Hence, this type of examinees might as well sit for the latter part of the test. Although these Genin could be regarded as winners in this gambling, they have to stake their brilliant future on this risky examination.

The last type of Genin badly performed in section one. They may probably hand in a blank examination paper by the end of the exam. They neither dare to cheat nor have the abilities to gather any intelligence. That means their general capability is supposed to be lower than that of the second group that I mentioned above. It seems that those examinees would not pass the exam anyway. In addition, they stand little chance of passing the exam next year because they are untalented Genin. If you think that the other two team members in your group are clever enough to finish the latter part of the exam, you might as well stay in the exam room. Even if you cannot pass the exam, at least you give a chance for your partners. As a consequence, sitting for the second half of the exam seems to be a much more appealing option. This type of candidates could be regarded as a free-rider. It is because they made no effort (did not cheat) in the first part of the exam since they were unable to do so. Moreover, these Genin have a relatively low risk since they have a very low possibility of passing the exam in the future. They were supposed to be expelled from the exam hall at the very beginning. Quit the opposite, in this case they got passed although they got zero mark in section one. Those Genin had nearly no cost in this gamble, but just took a little bit risk in the exam and some care for their teammates. Consequently, they were not only winners but also free-riders, i.e. the biggest winner in this gamble.

In conclusion, based on the case that discussed above, neither the most talented candidates (first type) nor the most rational examinees (second type) passed this written test, although those guys are considered elites at the village. Though the smartest participants (third type) passed this exam, their cost (cheating) and risk (be disqualified) were much higher than that of the untalented Genin (fourth type). Ironically, it turns out that the most foolish students became the biggest winners under the above-mentioned circumstance. They did nothing but made a right decision. There is no denying the fact that this testing system is not perfect. Some untalented candidates (fourth group) could not be sorted out. However, it is the best system to select the elitists (third group) to take the next level of the exam.

>>May 9, 2007 at 9:38:12 PM GMT+8

2007 年 5 月 4 日 星期五 【陰】

“Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union”
————“I was fired”

After I left the Judiciary, I was hired as an Education Assistant in a teachers’ union, the Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union (HKPTU or PTU). It was a steady job with reliable income. However, I was not a competent employee. I have only served for that organization for four months (from November 2006 to March 2007). It was a challenging job for me. In vain did I tried my best to improve my working skills during these few months. I got canned eventually. Maybe I was so incapable that my supervisor made up her mind to pink-slip me. In no way did I blame my boss for the dismission. I understand that an employer cannot afford to hire incapable workers.

I am now enjoying my long vacation and spending much more time reading, studying and traveling. Since I have been laid off, I have to tighten my purse strings from now on.

>>May 4, 2007 at 9:34:44 AM GMT+8

2007 年 4 月 19 日 星期四 【颳風】

“Valentine’s Day” (14th February, 2007)
———— Goodbye, my valentine 「月下千般愁」

「夕陽斜照金盆鏡，反映湖中千般愁。
水鳥拍翼各自飛，月夢破滅塵世間。」

“Hundred Days’ Love Story” (21st July 2006 thro14th February, 2007)
———— “The Coupon Theory”, a paradox

According to my “Coupon Theory”, everything has its own expiration date. (Please refer to my diary “A Dream of Moonlit Night” (26th July, 2007)). Everyone should try their best to pursuit what they want within a certain period of time. One could be regarded as a winner if he used his “coupon” before the deadline. I exercised my “Love Coupon” at the right moment and wrote my own romantic story with my girlfriend, Moon Sze. However, my love story did not last long. It only lasted two hundred days.

Nothing lasts forever. Even if you exercised your love coupon at the right moment, it does not mean you could maintain a relationship forever. Relationship has its own expiration date as well. Finally, I found that everybody was trapped in the “Coupon Theory” with no exception. It is a paradox that once you meet your deadline, another deadline is waiting for you. Maybe life is an endless pursuit.

I was so heartbroken when Moon broke up with me. I had a rough time for a long while. As time goes on, I forgot my grief. Whatever, I cherish the time that I shared with her. I have never seen her since the last Valentine’s Day. It was my first and probably my last Valentine’s Day.

Just as the saying goes: “Most of relationships usually bloom, but seldom fruit”. Maybe I just cried for the “Moon”.

“Solitude”
———— “Pandora's Box”

After breaking up with my girlfriend, I felt almost intolerably lonely. “Solitude” was the only word that can describe my feeling at that moment. The word “Solitude” means the state of one is alone or remote from society, which implies a condition of being apart from all human beings. Where did “Solitude” come from? It came from the Pandora’s Box.

According to the Greek mythology, Zeus is the king of the gods in the Mount Olympus, who created the first woman on earth, Pandora. He intended to make use of this very first woman to punish the mankind for stealing fire from him. Pandora was a charming young lady who was cunning, boldness, insatiable curiosity and mischievousness. Later on, Pandora got married to a man on earth. Before the wedding, Zeus gave her a storage jar as the wedding gift. Even though Pandora was told not to open the container under any circumstances, she burned with curiosity over what was in the jar. She opened the container releasing all the evils of mankind: greed, vanity, slander, envy, pining, solitude, love and so on. “Hope” was the last virtue leaving inside the jar. From then on, humans were suffered from all kinds of misfortunes, including solitude. Luckily, we still have “hope” around us. Also, woman has been regarded as the curse of man. Curiosity has becoming a distinctive characteristic of women.

In my opinion, love can dispel the feeling of being lonely. One may feel lonely and isolated when he gets lost in a relationship. Everyone gets chances to find another half because we still have “Hope”.

>>April 19, 2007 at 11:42:09 PM GMT+8

2007 年 4 月 9 日 星期一 【綿綿細雨】

I spent my Easter Holiday in Shenzhen with two good friends of mine.

>>April 9, 2007 at 10:18:27 AM GMT+8

2007 年 3 月 11 日 星期日 【陰】

I spent my lunar New Year holidays with my grandparents in Mainland China. My new diary will be published soon.

>>March 11, 2007 at 3:40:20 PM GMT+8

2007 年 1 月 21 日 星期日 【颳風】

My new diary will be published very soon. From now on, my diary in Chinese should be posted at the following website: http://pakki.mysinablog.com/

>>January 21, 2007 at 10:43:47 PM GMT+8

2007 年 1 月 7 日 星期日 【乍雨乍晴】

My first Chinese on-line diary is going to be published. Please simply click the following hyperlink,

http://pakki.mysinablog.com/

>>January 7, 2007 at 7:34:27 PM GMT+8

2006 年 12 月 20 日 星期三 【颳風】

The Judiciary accepted my resignation last month and I was hired as an Education Assistant in a teachers’ union, the Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union (HKPTU or PTU). I have been working for that organization for three weeks (since 29th November 2006). It is a challenging job for me.

>>December 20, 2006 at 10:40:00 PM GMT+8

2006 年 11 月 28 日 星期二 【颳風】

My diary has not been updated for months. In the past few months, I have encountered great difficulties in study, job and relationship. All those stuff depressed me. I am no longer non-civil servant in the Judiciary. I got a new job. A new start again.

>>November 28, 2006 at 11:40:44 PM GMT+8

2006 年 11 月 16 日 星期四 【微冷】

I have no time to update my diary.

>>November 16, 2006 at 10:52:45 PM GMT+8